Following two days of counting, Daniel Ennis of the Social Democrats and Seán Kyne of Fine Gael have been confirmed as the new TDs representing Dublin Central and Galway West, respectively.
Daniel Ennis is a Dublin City Councillor, first elected in 2024, and is originally from the North Strand. He is the parliamentary assistant to his now-constituency colleague Gary Gannon and has been involved with the Social Democrats since 2023. Having led the contest from the first count, Ennis benefitted from the transfer-friendliness of the Social Democrats to secure the seat ahead of Sinn Féin’s Janice Boylan.
For Seán Kyne in Galway West, bucking the trend of Government parties losing by-elections came down to transfers. Kyne had overcome a first count deficit of just over 350 votes and proved far more transfer-friendly than Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas (a former Fianna Fáil councillor), whose anti-immigrant rhetoric may have proven too extreme for many moderate and left leaning voters. Kyne is a sitting Senator and Leader of the Seanad, elected on the Cultural and Educational Panel in 2024. A former TD and Minister from 2011 to 2020, he is well-known in the constituency, and in a contest of newcomers, name recognition mattered.
The arithmetic of the Dáil is largely unchanged by these results. Fine Gael lost its Dublin Central seat but gained in Galway West, while Catherine Connolly’s former left-wing independent seat was offset by a Social Democrats gain in Dublin Central. Both Fine Gael and the Social Democrats will take confidence from the result, with support for both parties up from the last election in the two constituencies.
By-elections, however, are not always reliable indicators of party support. Single seat contests can produce tactical voting more familiar from UK General Elections, inflating support for candidates seen as best placed to win.
For Sinn Féin, these by-elections were a key test of whether it could convert its position as the main opposition party, and its almost 5-point lead in opinion polls into electoral success, especially in Mary Lou McDonald’s home constituency.
Both constituencies, however, had trouble from the start. In Galway West, the selection of a Galway City candidate led to Connemara based Sinn Féin branch refusing to support the party in the election. In Dublin Central, there is a belief that Mary Lou McDonald’s preferred candidate was Gillian Sheratt, despite the local party branch selecting Janice Boylan. The question now is whether these results point to a widening gap between Sinn Féin party leadership and parts of its grassroots organisation?
In advance of the by-elections, much of the media focus was on what a poor showing for the party will mean for Mary Lou McDonald as party leader. As some have pointed out, her election record is not as strong as her party’s polling would indicate, and questions will be asked as to why the party struggles to covert national support into seats. It is unlikely, however, that we will see a Sinn Féin leadership contest in the near future. The party has a habit of selecting an heir and gradually transferring power (as Gerry Adams did with Mary Lou McDonald, and as Martin McGuinness did with Michelle O’Neill). What we might expect to happen over the coming years, is a clearer indication from the party who Mary Lou’s successor might be.
Despite the party’s cautioning that it was not expecting strong results in the by-elections, Fianna Fáil performed poorly in Bertie Ahern’s former heartland, Dublin Central, and fell short of the performance of former TD Éamon Ó Cuív in Galway West. The last time Fianna Fáil won a by-election when it was in Government was Noel Tracey in 1982, and Micheál Martin was quick to point this out in advance of the elections. While there has been some discussion that both candidates were run to build name recognition before the next General Election, it would be hard to turn John Stephens’ four per cent in Dublin Central into a seat next time out.
On the centre-left, a strong result for the Social Democrats cements their position ahead of Labour Party and the Green Party. However, both parties will take some positives away, with the Greens putting in an impressive showing in Dublin Central and Labour’s Helen Ogbu emerging as the strongest left candidate in Galway West.
In Dublin Central, right-wing candidates performed well, with Gerry Hutch and Malachy Steenson pulling a collective first preference vote of more than 20 per cent. While that may not be replicated in a future election, Hutch increased his vote share and may feel he has a chance of taking a seat if he runs again.
For Independent Ireland, Noel Thomas was the leading candidate for much of the campaign, being the first to announce his intention to contest the election once Catherine Connolly was elected President. Through most of the counts, Thomas and Kyne were closely matched on transfers, and Thomas remained ahead until the final count, when the distribution of Labour’s Helen Ogbu’s transfers pushed Kyne over the line. Independent Ireland will be confident of taking a seat here at the next election.
The pressure is now on Daniel Ennis and Seán Kyne to represent their constituencies in the Dáil to earn their seats back at the next General Election. By-election winners can sometimes struggle to hold seats, with Fianna Fáil Malcolm Byrne being one of the shortest serving TDs following his by-election win in November 2019, before losing his seat at the 2020 General Election the next February.
For both newly elected TDs, they join party colleagues on the ticket. For Fine Gael, Seán Kyne and Hildegarde Naughton are a familiar ticket and have been the party’s standard bearers in the constituency since the 2016 election. However, since 2020, they have been unable to take two seats here, despite impressive vote management.
The Social Democrats will be facing a new challenge in defending two seats in the same constituency. The party has shown effective vote management in local elections running two candidates, but in a four seat constituency with both Labour and the Green Party confident they could take a seat, the party will face a competitive contest. There has been some speculation that Dublin Central will become a five-seat constituency following the next Boundary Review by the Electoral Commission (following the 2027 Census), but the party will still face an uphill battle. Gary Gannon previously ran for Europe, and the 2029 European Parliament election may be the answer to the party’s tricky position. For now, however, the result marks a significant success for the Social Democrats.
The by-election results disrupt two political coalitions in Irish politics. Since entering Government together in 2020, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have struggled to maintain distinct identities in the eyes of voters. Fine Gael’s win in Galway West and Fianna Fáil’s poor showing in both contests are likely to heighten tensions between the two Government parties, particularly as Fianna Fáil considers how it can better differentiate itself from its larger Coalition partner.
The Social Democrats’ gain gives the party additional speaking rights in the Dáil and, crucially greater visibility. It also strengthens their hand against Labour, their closest rival, on the centre left, with whom they had been tied for on seats before the win. But the pressure is not confined to Labour. Tensions are also emerging across the wider left among the so called ‘Connolly coalition’ with Social Democrats leader, Holly Cairns, saying that Sinn Féin is at a crossroads with a number of issues, and that they “need to figure out where they’re going.” The question now is whether the united left opposition can hold, or whether these by-elections mark the start of a more competitive phase between Sinn Féin, Labour and the Social Democrats.
