With just 11 days until polling day, Election 2020 has been a quiet enough affair so far. Two of the debates are over and the major party manifestos are now published — we are entering into the business end of the race to form the next government.
A total of 531 candidates will go before the public in 39 constituencies to challenge for 160 seats in the 33rd Dáil. In what is the most gender diverse field to stand for election ever, 162 female candidates will stand for election, up from the 160 who stood in 2016, but nationally for the first time more than 30% of candidates standing are women.
One thing we know after polling day on February 8 is that no one party will have a majority and it will be days, maybe weeks or months, before the winner is known as party leaders seek to put together coalitions to reach and surpass the magic 80-seat number in the 160-seat Dáil. In 2016, it took 63 days before the final shape of the Fine Gael/ Independent government was known.
In the 2020 election, neither of the two main parties will win an overall majority so therefore they will have to form a coalition of partners. With both main parties ruling out a coalition with the third largest party Sinn Féin, it is virtually impossible to predict what will happen. An alphabet soup of minor parties and independents further muddy the political landscape.
Like all close elections, it could turn on a blunder or some unseen issue that emerges. As undecided minds begin to focus, here are a number of factors we expect could determine the final outcome of this election:
While An Taoiseach performed admirably on the international stage, back home health continued to prove an insurmountable issue as the year progressed. The health service swallowed up more money than it had been allocated at the beginning of the year but booming corporate tax receipts gave the Minister the flexibility to bail it out.
But changing the government won't necessarily make much difference. Successive administrations have failed to make progress on this thorny matter. Which Party Leader has the answer will go a long way to determining the next election. However, as a former Minister for Health, Leo Varadkar is exposed on the government’s record in this area.
Not surprisingly, the housing crisis has been a dominant issue in the election campaign so far. Social housing delivery is being stunted, the private housing market is failing to deliver while rents have climbed to exorbitant levels. All of this has contributed to an acute homelessness crisis which shows no signs of abating.
If Fianna Fail expects to hold power in the next administration they will need to provide tangible workable solutions to the challenge presented.
The State pension age is becoming a major election issue, if only temporarily, as parties scramble after the grey vote ahead of polling date next month.
The age for receiving the pension will increase from 66 to 67 next year and there is increasing anger among older workers who will be forced to apply for jobseeker's allowance before they get their State retirement payment.
Political parties have been lining up in recent days to pledge to halt or reverse the increase. Whatever the parties promise, the pension pot will take a big bite out of future tax spending – about €1.1 billion over five years, if the 67 age limit is removed. Notorious for exercising their right to vote, appeasing this demographic will prove crucial to the winning party.
Recent opinion polls have seen a sharp rise in support for Sinn Fein. In recent years the party has refashioned itself as a left-wing champion of the working-class and pensioners and an alternative to the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael conservative duopoly that has taken turns ruling Ireland for almost a century.
Sinn Féin’s return to government in Northern Ireland – the power-sharing executive at Stormont revived this month after a three-year impasse – is thought to have bolstered the party’s credibility south of the border.
However, both the leading parties, along with the much smaller Labour, have ruled out any coalition with Sinn Féin, saying it remains beholden to shadowy IRA figures.
The Green Party has seen its fortunes transformed in the past number of years, winning two seats in the European Parliament and electing 49 councillors— up from 12 in 2011 — in May 2019. In constituencies where the left dominates any increase in the Green Party vote will come at the expense of others occupying similar ground on the political spectrum.
Their activist base is motivated and has captured the public imagination and gained support at the ballot box, the Green Party is now poised to re-enter government.
The Confidence & Supply arrangement proved to be an uneasy marriage of convenience that has lasted much longer than most pundits would ever have expected so it was only a matter of time before political hostilities would resume. The general election campaign promises to be a gruelling battle, where the ground war will be every bit as antagonistic as the air war.
Fine Gael has led the government for nine years; to win a third term will be difficult. It rarely happens. This is also Micheál Martin’s last chance to become Taoiseach after almost a decade as the leader of the opposition and we expect that nothing will be left behind in Fianna Fáil’s desire to lead the next Government.
Both men have gone head-to-head in two televised debates already with both putting in assured performances. It is so close that it's almost down to the toss of a coin but unexpected controversies, the outcome of the final televised debate and the turnout on a Saturday polling day will prove to be decisive factors that will determine the constitution of the next Government.
Every election sees attempts by larger parties to co-ordinate with smaller parties for the purposes of government formation at a later date. The effectiveness of these efforts remains to be seen. Such campaigns excite Oireachtas insiders but have little reach amongst the public as a whole.
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